Author: Mr.Amar – Technical Analyst

Australian retail sales were surprisingly strong in January, buyers being exposed to integrated incorporate an increase in Omicron business with plumb, suggesting that the economy maintained a considerable amount of dynamics during the new year. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics out this morning showed retail sales climbed 1.8% in January to about $23.3 billion, the second-highest level on record and easily beating forecasts of a 0.4% gain. That followed a 4.4% drop in December, which was distorted by the popularity of online sales that had pulled spending into November. Private credit data also hit the wires, with the month-on-month number coming in at 0.6% for January, against 0.7% forecast and the previous print of -4.4%.

However, the market is focused on the unfolding events around the military conflict in Ukraine. The case of the exception of Russia from the international payment system, has not yet been fully disclosed, but there are reports that arise from this point that several Russian banks likely that other sanctions will be announced in the coming days. The RBA will meet on Tuesday and are expected to keep rates on hold. While the asset purchase program was deleted at the last meeting, the market will be focused on any announcement regarding the future of the assets they already own.

In addition, recent statements by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen seem to have defied the markets’ cautious optimism. The regional leader recently told EU News that the European Union (EU) wants Ukraine in the bloc. However, the risk-averse sentiment has recently been challenged by headlines broadcasting talks between Moscow and Kyiv on the border with Belarus. Looking forward, headlines concerning the Russia-Ukraine talks will be in focus while US trade numbers for January and Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for February may offer additional directions to the AUD/USD prices.