Author: Amar – Technical Analyst

Oil prices increased the eve more than 10% on the eve of a meeting of the International
Petroleum Cartel to decide on production levels. Major consuming nations said they reached
an agreement to release some of their emergency oil reserves to keep prices from spiking
further. During the Asia session this morning, oil price surges up to more than $100/barrel.
Analysts are watching inventory data released Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as well
as rising shares of major energy companies.

As the war continues to dominate risk sentiment, sanctions against Russia and retaliation
from both the EU and Western leaders through tougher sanctions have pushed oil and gas to
the forefront of inflationary pressures as consumers struggle to recover from the coronavirus
pandemic. With prices currently testing the key psychological $100 level, both Brent Crude
and WTI (US Crude) are currently holding above the ascending channel, with the CCI
(Commodity Channel Index) edging back into overbought territory. However, given the current
global fundamental backdrop, the uptrend is likely to continue.

Other than that, the organization of the oil export countries (OPEC) and the Allies led
by Russia, one of Russia, one as an OPEC + known group, is likely to be in the output policy
of increasing oil production to 400k barrel per day (BPD) in April. The news quotes the reason
as, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not affected OPEC+ deal functioning so far.