Author: Sir Amar – Technical Analyst
AUD Monetary Policy Meeting (Tuesday, 16th August 9:30 AM GMT+8)
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be releasing the meeting minutes on this date. The Australian dollar ended higher last week after US inflation data excited markets and sent the US dollar lower, lifting AUD/USD. Will US Dollar dominate AUD/USD?
It is a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank’s most recent board meeting, which provides detailed information on the economic conditions that influenced its decision on setting interest rates. If more hawkish than expected is good for the currency.
Instruments that can be traded: AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD
CAD Inflation Rate Data Release (Tuesday, 16th August 8:30 PM GMT+8)
Statistics Canada will launch Consumer Price Index (CPI) tonight at 8:30 PM GMT+8. CPI is the maximum critical month-to-month inflation-associated launch because of its earliness and extensive coverage which measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Last time the CPI release came in lower than expected at 0.7% versus 0.9%, there were no significant signs of inflation slowing. There are still many obstacles to the supply of goods and basic products.
Therefore, if the CPI data is higher than what is forecast, then CAD will rise. But if the data is lower, then CAD will fall.
Instruments that can be traded: CAD/JPY, USD/CAD, EUR/CAD
NZD Rate Statement (Wednesday, 17th August 10:00 AM GMT+8)
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to hike its official interest rate by 50 basis points this week. NZD/USD gained nearly 3.5%, hitting its highest level since early June.
In this policy assessment it is one of the main tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It includes the outcome of your interest rate decision and comments on the economic conditions that influenced your decision. Above all, it analyzes the economic prospects and gives indications of the outcome of future decisions.
More hawkish than expected is good for currency and traders can identify their positions.
Instruments that can be trade: NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, GBP/NZD
GBP Inflation Rate Data Release (Wednesday, 17th August 2:00 PM GMT+8)
The UK Office for National Statistics is due to release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday 17th August. The CPI is one of the key indicators for assessing the state of the economy, especially inflation. Inflation, in turn, is important for currency valuation because rising prices lead to rising interest rates.
This is considered the UK’s most important inflation data because it’s used as the central bank’s inflation target. Last month’s CPI came in at 9.4%, beating the 9.3% expected. GBPUSD had lost around 115 pips but quickly recovered. Let’s see how he reacts this time.
If the CPI data release is higher than what is expected, then GBP will rise. But if the data is lower, then GBP will fall.
Instruments that can be trade: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP