Author: Mr. Amar – Technical Analyst

Many retail traders have thought the declination of oil price was a sign of trend reversal but in fact, it was just a mere retracement and still on track to test the 2014 high at $93 per barrel. The recovery in the price of oil is undiscouraged by the almost 2.4 million in US inventories as it extends the advance from the weekly low at around $82. The current market conditions may keep crude prices afloat as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) appear to be on the right course in restoring production to pre-pandemic levels.

The market is pricing in the risk that there will be some sort of geopolitical event on the Ukraine-Russian border, which may trigger a set of sanctions that could reduce Russian natural gas and oil supplies available to global markets. Lower US production is also supportive. If OPEC and its allies will respond to the rise US stockpiles in 2022, world oil demand growth has been kept unchanged at 4.2 million barrels per day with total global consumption at 1.08 million barrels per day, and the group may stay on track to adjust upward the monthly overall production by 400,000 barrels per day amid the tepid recovery in US output. Technically, analysts calculated the movement of oil price to be increase in the next few months. As in the previous writing, I have mentioned that the targeted price per barrel for oil will be up to $100.