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Author – Mr.Amar – Technical Analysts

Speaking this morning, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said inflation is not yet sustainable within the central bank’s 23% target range but is getting closer. Mr Lowe also explained that interest rates could rise later this year. have risen since the beginning of the month despite market volatility due to the conflict in Ukraine. Cash rate futures are currently trading over 100 basis points tightening ahead of the December RBA meeting. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar managed to rise despite the risk aversion seen in the markets, likely helped by rising iron ore prices. Speaking of iron ore, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Guy Debelle unexpectedly announced his resignation on Thursday afternoon.

AUD/USD tried to extend above the previous highs near 0.73300 yesterday but failed to gather much momentum and the price moved lower. This momentum picked up steam in today’s Asian session as price declined on pullbacks. However, the break above 0.73200 shows that the momentum could not be sustained and the price would rise. However, the pair’s recent rally sees another struggle with a down sloping trendline from late February 2021 around 0.74200. Furthermore, a rising trendline near 0.7455 at press time will challenge the AUDUSD bulls thereafter. Should AUD/USD stay firmer above 0.74550, a rally to the October 2020 peak near 0.75600 cannot be ruled out. If the bearish pair holds the reins above 0.72300, a run south towards the September 2021 low near 0.71700 is imminent.